2 November, 2020
Aaccording to a new research, the British government has used out-of-date death-scenario modelling to illustrate the coronavirus crisis and justify a second national lockdown.
The director of the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University, Carl Heneghan, in comments published on Monday said that the selection of data has not been based on the current reality
Heneghan insists that the death forecasts could be four to five times too high.
“I cannot understand why they have used this data when there are far more up-to-date forecasts from Cambridge that they could have accessed, which show something very different”.
In a scenario from Cambridge University showed by the government’s scientific advisers at a Downing Street press conference on Saturday, graphs suggested England could see 4,000 daily deaths early next month. Thou, this data was based on different models from at least three weeks ago, Heneghan and Daniel Howdon of Leeds Institute of Health Sciences explained on Monday.
Two model estimates presented by the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) have already proven to be invalid, according to Heneghan and Howdon. They say these analyses need checking to verify whether the lower estimates could reflect the actual data.
On saturday, Britain’s PM Boris Johnson ordered England back into a national lockdown starting from Thursday morning, until December 2.
“Models of our scientists suggest that, unless we act now, we could see deaths over the winter that are twice as bad or more compared with the first wave,” Johnson is preparing to say on Monday, his office announced.